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Xorazm vs Lokomotiv — Super League 2026

Xorazm
Xorazm
Preview
15:00
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
8/20/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Xorazm Stadium
39%
Lokomotiv
model favours
33%28%39%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Xorazm33%
×Draw28%
Lokomotiv39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xorazm
1.13
Lokomotiv
1.25

Lokomotiv creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 74 away

creates per match

Xorazm
1.00
Lokomotiv
1.16

allows per match

Xorazm
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.26

finishing

Xorazm+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xorazm ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Xorazm or draw
61%
Xorazm or Lokomotiv
72%
Draw or Lokomotiv
67%

Winning margin

Xorazm wins by 2+
13%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Xorazm 1+ goals
68%
Xorazm 2+ goals
31%
Xorazm 3+ goals
11%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Xorazm (draw refunded)
46%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xorazm at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xorazm attack 1.00 + Lokomotiv defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Lokomotiv attack 1.16 + Xorazm defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Xorazm scores more
33%
level
28%
Lokomotiv scores more
39%

Lokomotiv at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Xorazm
LLLDL
Lokomotiv
DDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xorazm face Lokomotiv (Super League)

Super League returns with Xorazm hosting Lokomotiv. Match starts August 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Xorazm host Lokomotiv at Xorazm Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.