Xinjiang Tianshan vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 74+ matches
Xinjiang Tianshan29%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring46%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring creates 30% more chances
Season form · 74 home / 124 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Xinjiang Tianshan ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.08 · 74 matches
Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.05 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23
Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Wuhan Zall
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Hangzhou Greentown
Qingdao Huanghai
Beijing Baxy
Shijiazhuang Y. J.Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Liaoning Hongyun FC
Meizhou Kejia
Yanbian Tigers FC
Shanghai Shenxin
Zhejiang Yiteng
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Dalian TranscendenceXinjiang TianshanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Xinjiang Tianshan host Heilongjiang Lava Spring on Tuesday, 17 November 2020 at 07:30. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Xinjiang Tianshan 3 – 2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Xinjiang Tianshan beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3-2 in League One on November 17, 2020.
Goals: K. Onuegbu (21'), Danyar Musajan (43'), D. Ewolo (47'), B. Kanakimana (76'), Li Shuai (89').
The match was played at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Suzhou.