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Xinjiang Tianshan vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
5/11/2019League OneLeague One · Round 9Hongshan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan32%
×Draw24%
Beijing Baxy44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.33
Beijing Baxy
1.60

Beijing Baxy creates 20% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 70 away

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.08
Beijing Baxy
1.09

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
2.11
Beijing Baxy
1.57

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw
56%
Xinjiang Tianshan or Beijing Baxy
76%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
68%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
14%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
74%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
38%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
15%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
80%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
47%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
42%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 75 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Beijing Baxy attack 1.09 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
32%
level
24%
Beijing Baxy scores more
44%

Beijing Baxy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Xinjiang Tianshan 1–0 Beijing Baxy

Xinjiang Tianshan beat Beijing Baxy 1-0 in League One on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Hongshan Stadium in Ürümqi.