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Xinabajul vs Xelajú — Liga Nacional 2019

Xinabajul
Xinabajul
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Xelajú
Xelajú
11/6/2022Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 18Estadio Los Cuchumatanes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Xinabajul48%
×Draw28%
Xelajú24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinabajul
1.33
Xelajú
0.86

Xinabajul creates 55% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 149 away

creates per match

Xinabajul
1.37
Xelajú
0.75

allows per match

Xinabajul
0.98
Xelajú
1.30

finishing

Xinabajul+0.00on par
Xelajú+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinabajul ↓

Xelajú →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Xinabajul or draw
76%
Xinabajul or Xelajú
72%
Draw or Xelajú
52%

Winning margin

Xinabajul wins by 2+
22%
Xelajú wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Xinabajul 1+ goals
74%
Xinabajul 2+ goals
38%
Xinabajul 3+ goals
15%
Xelajú 1+ goals
58%
Xelajú 2+ goals
21%
Xelajú 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Xinabajul (draw refunded)
66%
Xelajú (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinabajul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.98 · 60 matches

Xelajú away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.30 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinabajul attack 1.37 + Xelajú defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Xelajú attack 0.75 + Xinabajul defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Xinabajul scores more
48%
level
28%
Xelajú scores more
24%

Xinabajul at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Xinabajul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Xinabajul 0–2 Xelajú

Xelajú beat Xinabajul 2-0 in Liga Nacional on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Los Cuchumatanes in Huehuetenango.