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Xinabajul vs Malacateco — Liga Nacional 2019

Xinabajul
Xinabajul
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Malacateco
Malacateco
9/24/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 9Estadio Los Cuchumatanes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Xinabajul52%
×Draw26%
Malacateco22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinabajul
1.50
Malacateco
0.88

Xinabajul creates 70% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 145 away

creates per match

Xinabajul
1.37
Malacateco
0.78

allows per match

Xinabajul
0.98
Malacateco
1.62

finishing

Xinabajul+0.00on par
Malacateco+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinabajul ↓

Malacateco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Xinabajul or draw
78%
Xinabajul or Malacateco
74%
Draw or Malacateco
48%

Winning margin

Xinabajul wins by 2+
26%
Malacateco wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Xinabajul 1+ goals
78%
Xinabajul 2+ goals
44%
Xinabajul 3+ goals
19%
Malacateco 1+ goals
59%
Malacateco 2+ goals
22%
Malacateco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Xinabajul (draw refunded)
70%
Malacateco (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinabajul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.98 · 60 matches

Malacateco away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinabajul attack 1.37 + Malacateco defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Malacateco attack 0.78 + Xinabajul defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Xinabajul scores more
52%
level
26%
Malacateco scores more
22%

Xinabajul at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Xinabajul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xinabajul vs Malacateco

Xinabajul beat Malacateco 2-1 in Liga Nacional on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Los Cuchumatanes in Huehuetenango.