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Xinabajul vs Cobán Imperial — Liga Nacional 2019

Xinabajul
Xinabajul
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cobán Imperial
Cobán Imperial
4/30/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 21Estadio Los Cuchumatanes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Xinabajul48%
×Draw27%
Cobán Imperial25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinabajul
1.39
Cobán Imperial
0.93

Xinabajul creates 49% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 146 away

creates per match

Xinabajul
1.37
Cobán Imperial
0.88

allows per match

Xinabajul
0.98
Cobán Imperial
1.40

finishing

Xinabajul+0.00on par
Cobán Imperial+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinabajul ↓

Cobán Imperial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Xinabajul or draw
75%
Xinabajul or Cobán Imperial
73%
Draw or Cobán Imperial
52%

Winning margin

Xinabajul wins by 2+
23%
Cobán Imperial wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Xinabajul 1+ goals
75%
Xinabajul 2+ goals
40%
Xinabajul 3+ goals
16%
Cobán Imperial 1+ goals
61%
Cobán Imperial 2+ goals
24%
Cobán Imperial 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Xinabajul (draw refunded)
65%
Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinabajul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.98 · 60 matches

Cobán Imperial away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.40 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinabajul attack 1.37 + Cobán Imperial defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cobán Imperial attack 0.88 + Xinabajul defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Xinabajul scores more
48%
level
27%
Cobán Imperial scores more
25%

Xinabajul at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Xinabajul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Xinabajul 0–1 Cobán Imperial

Cobán Imperial beat Xinabajul 1-0 in Liga Nacional on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Los Cuchumatanes in Huehuetenango.