Xerez 0–2 Ciudad de Lucena: Result & Stats

Xerez

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ciudad de Lucena

10/13/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Estadio de La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Xerez45%

×Draw30%

Ciudad de Lucena26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XerezExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Lucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.83

Xerez

1.20

Ciudad de Lucena

0.83

Xerez creates 45% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 110 away

1.49

creates per match

1.06

0.61

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Xerez

1.49

Ciudad de Lucena

1.06

allows per match

Xerez

0.61

Ciudad de Lucena

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Xerez or draw

74%

Xerez or Ciudad de Lucena

70%

Draw or Ciudad de Lucena

55%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+

20%

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals

70%

Xerez 2+ goals

34%

Xerez 3+ goals

12%

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

56%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

20%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)

64%

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Xerez scores more

45%

level

30%

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

26%

Xerez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff