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Xerez Deportivo vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Conil
Conil
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 15Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Xerez Deportivo62%
×Draw24%
Conil14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez Deportivo
1.64
Conil
0.62

Xerez Deportivo creates 165% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 111 away

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo
1.68
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo
0.43
Conil
1.60

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw
86%
Xerez Deportivo or Conil
76%
Draw or Conil
38%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
35%
Conil wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
81%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
49%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
23%
Conil 1+ goals
46%
Conil 2+ goals
13%
Conil 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
82%
Conil (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Conil attack 0.81 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more
62%
level
24%
Conil scores more
14%

Xerez Deportivo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez Deportivo 0 – 1 Conil

Conil beat Xerez Deportivo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.