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Xelajú vs Xinabajul — Liga Nacional 2019

Xelajú
Xelajú
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Xinabajul
Xinabajul
4/9/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 17Estadio Mario Camposeco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Xelajú59%
×Draw24%
Xinabajul18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xelajú
1.71
Xinabajul
0.81

Xelajú creates 111% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 59 away

creates per match

Xelajú
1.54
Xinabajul
0.90

allows per match

Xelajú
0.73
Xinabajul
1.88

finishing

Xelajú+0.00on par
Xinabajul+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xelajú ↓

Xinabajul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Xelajú or draw
82%
Xelajú or Xinabajul
76%
Draw or Xinabajul
41%

Winning margin

Xelajú wins by 2+
33%
Xinabajul wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Xelajú 1+ goals
82%
Xelajú 2+ goals
51%
Xelajú 3+ goals
24%
Xinabajul 1+ goals
56%
Xinabajul 2+ goals
19%
Xinabajul 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Xelajú (draw refunded)
77%
Xinabajul (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xelajú at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.73 · 146 matches

Xinabajul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xelajú attack 1.54 + Xinabajul defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Xinabajul attack 0.90 + Xelajú defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Xelajú scores more
59%
level
24%
Xinabajul scores more
18%

Xelajú at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Xelajú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xelajú vs Xinabajul

Xelajú and Xinabajul drew 0-0 in Liga Nacional on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Camposeco in Quetzaltenango.