Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Xelajú vs Suchitepéquez — Liga Nacional 2019

Xelajú
Xelajú
Preview
21:00
Suchitepéquez
Suchitepéquez
11/15/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Round 21Estadio Mario Camposeco
54%
Xelajú
model favours
54%22%23%

Xelajú and Suchitepéquez have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Xelajú54%
×Draw22%
Suchitepéquez23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xelajú
1.94
Suchitepéquez
1.20

Xelajú creates 62% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 3 away

creates per match

Xelajú
1.54
Suchitepéquez
1.67

allows per match

Xelajú
0.73
Suchitepéquez
2.33

finishing

Xelajú+0.00on par
Suchitepéquez+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xelajú ↓

Suchitepéquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Xelajú or draw
77%
Xelajú or Suchitepéquez
78%
Draw or Suchitepéquez
46%

Winning margin

Xelajú wins by 2+
32%
Suchitepéquez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Xelajú 1+ goals
86%
Xelajú 2+ goals
58%
Xelajú 3+ goals
30%
Suchitepéquez 1+ goals
70%
Suchitepéquez 2+ goals
34%
Suchitepéquez 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Xelajú (draw refunded)
70%
Suchitepéquez (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xelajú at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.73 · 146 matches

Suchitepéquez away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xelajú attack 1.54 + Suchitepéquez defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.94

Suchitepéquez attack 1.67 + Xelajú defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Xelajú scores more
54%
level
22%
Suchitepéquez scores more
23%

Xelajú at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Xelajú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Xelajú
LLWDW
Suchitepéquez
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xelajú face Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)

Liga Nacional returns with Xelajú hosting Suchitepéquez. Match starts November 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Xelajú host Suchitepéquez at Estadio Mario Camposeco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.