Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Xelajú vs Deportivo Sanarate — Liga Nacional 2019

Xelajú
Xelajú
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Sanarate
Deportivo Sanarate
8/25/2019Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 5Estadio Mario Camposeco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Xelajú57%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Sanarate19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xelajú
1.77
Deportivo Sanarate
0.92

Xelajú creates 92% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 35 away

creates per match

Xelajú
1.54
Deportivo Sanarate
1.09

allows per match

Xelajú
0.74
Deportivo Sanarate
2.00

finishing

Xelajú+0.00on par
Deportivo Sanarate+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xelajú ↓

Deportivo Sanarate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Xelajú or draw
81%
Xelajú or Deportivo Sanarate
77%
Draw or Deportivo Sanarate
43%

Winning margin

Xelajú wins by 2+
32%
Deportivo Sanarate wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Xelajú 1+ goals
83%
Xelajú 2+ goals
53%
Xelajú 3+ goals
26%
Deportivo Sanarate 1+ goals
60%
Deportivo Sanarate 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Sanarate 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Xelajú (draw refunded)
75%
Deportivo Sanarate (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xelajú at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.74 · 145 matches

Deportivo Sanarate away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xelajú attack 1.54 + Deportivo Sanarate defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Deportivo Sanarate attack 1.09 + Xelajú defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Xelajú scores more
57%
level
23%
Deportivo Sanarate scores more
19%

Xelajú at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Xelajú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xelajú vs Deportivo Sanarate

Xelajú and Deportivo Sanarate drew 2-2 in Liga Nacional on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Camposeco in Quetzaltenango.