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Xelajú vs Comunicaciones — Liga Nacional 2019

Xelajú
Xelajú
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
12/8/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Mario Camposeco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Xelajú47%
×Draw28%
Comunicaciones25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xelajú
1.37
Comunicaciones
0.93

Xelajú creates 47% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 157 away

creates per match

Xelajú
1.54
Comunicaciones
1.11

allows per match

Xelajú
0.74
Comunicaciones
1.20

finishing

Xelajú+0.00on par
Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xelajú ↓

Comunicaciones →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Xelajú or draw
75%
Xelajú or Comunicaciones
72%
Draw or Comunicaciones
53%

Winning margin

Xelajú wins by 2+
22%
Comunicaciones wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Xelajú 1+ goals
75%
Xelajú 2+ goals
40%
Xelajú 3+ goals
16%
Comunicaciones 1+ goals
61%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
24%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Xelajú (draw refunded)
65%
Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xelajú at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.74 · 145 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xelajú attack 1.54 + Comunicaciones defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.37

Comunicaciones attack 1.11 + Xelajú defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Xelajú scores more
47%
level
28%
Comunicaciones scores more
25%

Xelajú at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Xelajú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Xelajú 2–2 Comunicaciones

Xelajú and Comunicaciones drew 2-2 in Liga Nacional on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Camposeco in Quetzaltenango.