Xelajú 0–1 Antigua GFC: Result & Stats

Xelajú

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Antigua GFC

11/5/2023

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 15Estadio Mario Camposeco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Xelajú49%

×Draw27%

Antigua GFC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XelajúExpected goals in this matchAntigua GFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.93

Xelajú

1.45

Antigua GFC

0.93

Xelajú creates 56% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 155 away

1.54

creates per match

1.12

0.74

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Xelajú

1.54

Antigua GFC

1.12

allows per match

Xelajú

0.74

Antigua GFC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xelajú+0.00on par

Antigua GFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xelajú ↓

Antigua GFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Xelajú or draw

76%

Xelajú or Antigua GFC

73%

Draw or Antigua GFC

51%

Winning margin

Xelajú wins by 2+

24%

Antigua GFC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Xelajú 1+ goals

77%

Xelajú 2+ goals

42%

Xelajú 3+ goals

18%

Antigua GFC 1+ goals

61%

Antigua GFC 2+ goals

24%

Antigua GFC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Xelajú (draw refunded)

67%

Antigua GFC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xelajú at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.74 · 145 matches

Antigua GFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xelajú attack 1.54 + Antigua GFC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Antigua GFC attack 1.12 + Xelajú defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Xelajú scores more

49%

level

27%

Antigua GFC scores more

24%

Xelajú at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Xelajú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff