Wydad Fès 1–0 Olympique Khouribga: Result & Stats

Wydad Fès

FT

1 – 0

Olympique Khouribga

12/8/2020

Botola 2 · Round 2Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Wydad Fès44%

×Draw29%

Olympique Khouribga27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad FèsExpected goals in this matchOlympique Khouribga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.92

Wydad Fès

1.27

Olympique Khouribga

0.92

Wydad Fès creates 38% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 45 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

0.84

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Wydad Fès

1.22

Olympique Khouribga

1.00

allows per match

Wydad Fès

0.84

Olympique Khouribga

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

Olympique Khouribga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw

73%

Wydad Fès or Olympique Khouribga

71%

Draw or Olympique Khouribga

56%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

20%

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

72%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

36%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

14%

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

60%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

23%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

62%

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 121 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.22 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.00 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wydad Fès scores more

44%

level

29%

Olympique Khouribga scores more

27%

Wydad Fès at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff