Wydad Fès 1–1 Kawkab Marrakech: Result & Stats

Wydad Fès

FT

1 – 1

Kawkab Marrakech

10/27/2019

Botola 2 · Round 6Terrain Muncipal d'Azrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Wydad Fès42%

×Draw31%

Kawkab Marrakech27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad FèsExpected goals in this matchKawkab Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.80

Wydad Fès

1.09

Kawkab Marrakech

0.80

Wydad Fès creates 36% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 74 away

1.23

creates per match

0.77

0.84

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Wydad Fès

1.23

Kawkab Marrakech

0.77

allows per match

Wydad Fès

0.84

Kawkab Marrakech

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw

73%

Wydad Fès or Kawkab Marrakech

69%

Draw or Kawkab Marrakech

58%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

17%

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

66%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

30%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

10%

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

55%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

19%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

61%

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.84 · 120 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.95 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.23 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.77 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wydad Fès scores more

42%

level

31%

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

27%

Wydad Fès at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff