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Wydad AC vs FAR Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
1 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
12/9/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 11Stade Mohamed V (Casablanca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Wydad AC42%
×Draw27%
FAR Rabat31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.34
FAR Rabat
1.12

Wydad AC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 118 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
1.76
FAR Rabat
1.39

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.85
FAR Rabat
0.92

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
69%
Wydad AC or FAR Rabat
73%
Draw or FAR Rabat
58%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
19%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
74%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
39%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
15%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
67%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
31%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
57%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 116 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.76 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.34

FAR Rabat attack 1.39 + Wydad AC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wydad AC scores more
42%
level
27%
FAR Rabat scores more
31%

Wydad AC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
Walid El Karti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs FAR Rabat

Wydad AC beat FAR Rabat 1-0 in Botola Pro on December 9, 2018.

Goals: Walid El Karti (43').

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V (Casablanca).