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Wycombe vs Wigan — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Wigan
Wigan
S. Kaikai 22'
C. Lang 82', 78'
T. Naylor 70'
2/22/2022League OneLeague One · Round 35Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wycombe54%
×Draw23%
Wigan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.82
Wigan
1.09

Wycombe creates 67% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.94
Wigan
1.07

allows per match

Wycombe
1.11
Wigan
1.70

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par
Wigan-0.07on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
77%
Wycombe or Wigan
77%
Draw or Wigan
46%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
31%
Wigan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
84%
Wycombe 2+ goals
54%
Wycombe 3+ goals
27%
Wigan 1+ goals
66%
Wigan 2+ goals
30%
Wigan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
71%
Wigan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.70 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Wigan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.82

Wigan attack 1.07 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wycombe scores more
54%
level
23%
Wigan scores more
23%

Wycombe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. PowerWiganWigan · M
7.9

Match Events

22'
S. Kaikai↳ S. Vokes
57'
Curtis Tilt
61'
G. Edwards← G. Massey
61'
S. Humphrys← J. Magennis
70'
T. Naylor
75'
G. McCleary← B. Hanlan
78'
C. Lang↳ J. McClean
82'
C. Lang
84'
A. Akinfenwa← S. Kaikai
85'
D. Gape← L. Wing
90+9'
G. Rea← W. Keane

Possession

32%Wycombe

Shots

10Wycombe

Pass accuracy

43%Wycombe

Statistics

WycombeWigan
Overview
32%Possession68%
10Total Shots11
1Corners7
9Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots11
3On Target5
5Off Target3
2Blocked3
2Inside Box8
8Outside Box3
Passing
32%Possession68%
230Total Passes489
122Accurate Passes348
53%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls16
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Wycombe vs Wigan

Wigan beat Wycombe 3-1 in League One on February 22, 2022.

Goals: S. Kaikai (22'), T. Naylor (70'), C. Lang (78', 82').

Wigan controlled possession (68%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.