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Wycombe vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
Preview
19:45
Stevenage
Stevenage
12/29/2026League OneLeague One · Round 22Adams Park
Big match
55%
Wycombe
model favours
55%23%22%

Wycombe win just 26% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Wycombe55%
×Draw23%
Stevenage22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.86
Stevenage
1.08

Wycombe creates 72% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.95
Stevenage
1.01

allows per match

Wycombe
1.16
Stevenage
1.77

finishing

Wycombe+0.05on par
Stevenage-0.01on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
78%
Wycombe or Stevenage
77%
Draw or Stevenage
45%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
32%
Stevenage wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
84%
Wycombe 2+ goals
55%
Wycombe 3+ goals
28%
Stevenage 1+ goals
66%
Stevenage 2+ goals
29%
Stevenage 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
72%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.95 + Stevenage defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.86

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Wycombe defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wycombe scores more
55%
level
23%
Stevenage scores more
22%

Wycombe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Wycombe play Defensively solid, Stevenage Direct / counter-attacking
  • Wycombe fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 2.0 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Wycombe
Defensively solid
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession45%
66%Pass accuracy64%
12.3Shots10.8
2.00xGBiggest gap1.14
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WycombeStevenage

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Wycombe
0
Draws
3
Stevenage
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 17%
3–10–11–03–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wycombe
LLWWL
Stevenage
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wycombe vs Stevenage — Match Preview

Wycombe face Stevenage on December 29, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wycombe host Stevenage at Adams Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.