Wycombe vs Sheffield Wednesday

Wycombe

Preview

18:45

Sheffield Wednesday

9/1/2026

League One · Round 4Adams Park

Big match

41%

Wycombe

model favours

41%27%33%

Sheffield Wednesday score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wycombe41%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Wednesday33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.19

Wycombe

1.37

Sheffield Wednesday

1.19

Wycombe creates 15% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 53 away

1.53

creates per match

1.30

1.08

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Wycombe

1.53

Sheffield Wednesday

1.30

allows per match

Wycombe

1.08

Sheffield Wednesday

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

67%

Wycombe or Sheffield Wednesday

73%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

59%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

19%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

75%

Wycombe 2+ goals

40%

Wycombe 3+ goals

16%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

70%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

33%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

56%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.30 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wycombe scores more

41%

level

27%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

33%

Wycombe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 30% of Sheffield Wednesday’s matches
Wycombe fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Wycombe

Defensively solid

Sheffield Wednesday

Balanced

48%Possession50%

67%Pass accuracy69%

12.2ShotsBiggest gap12.8

1.91xG—

WycombeSheffield Wednesday

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2

Wycombe

1

Draws

3

Sheffield Wednesday

Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 33%

0–11–31–02–20–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Wycombe

LLWWL

Wednesday

WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff