Wycombe 1–0 Reading: Result & Stats | Championship

Wycombe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

F. Onyedinma 49'

2/23/2021

Championship · Round 32Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe36%

×Draw29%

Reading35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.10

Wycombe

1.11

Reading

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 112 away

0.74

creates per match

0.99

1.22

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Wycombe

0.74

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Wycombe

1.22

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

65%

Wycombe or Reading

71%

Draw or Reading

64%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

14%

Reading wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

67%

Wycombe 2+ goals

30%

Wycombe 3+ goals

10%

Reading 1+ goals

67%

Reading 2+ goals

30%

Reading 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

50%

Reading (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 0.74 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.11

Reading attack 0.99 + Wycombe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Wycombe scores more

36%

level

29%

Reading scores more

35%

Wycombe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

D. Stockdale

Wycombe · G

7.9

Match Events

41'

Josh Knight

45'

Garath McCleary

49'

F. Onyedinma↳ A. Stewart

69'

Ryan Tafazolli

74'

C. Thompson← A. Mehmeti

79'

G. Puşcaş← M. Olise

82'

D. Gape← G. McCleary

82'

J. McCarthy← F. Onyedinma

83'

George Pușcaș

84'

Tom McIntyre

84'

S. Baldock← O. Ejaria

84'

S. Aluko← T. Holmes

90+1'

A. Muskwe← U. Ikpeazu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeReading

Overview

31%Possession69%

9Total Shots18

3Corners11

16Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots18

5On Target4

3Off Target6

1Blocked8

5Inside Box11

4Outside Box7

Passing

31%Possession69%

201Total Passes419

102Accurate Passes309

51%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1