Wycombe 0–0 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oxford United

9/15/2018

League One · Round 8Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Wycombe43%

×Draw26%

Oxford United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.22

Wycombe

1.46

Oxford United

1.22

Wycombe creates 20% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 135 away

1.53

creates per match

1.36

1.08

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Wycombe

1.53

Oxford United

1.36

allows per match

Wycombe

1.08

Oxford United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

68%

Wycombe or Oxford United

74%

Draw or Oxford United

57%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

21%

Oxford United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

77%

Wycombe 2+ goals

43%

Wycombe 3+ goals

18%

Oxford United 1+ goals

70%

Oxford United 2+ goals

34%

Oxford United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

57%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wycombe scores more

43%

level

26%

Oxford United scores more

32%

Wycombe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Harriman← A. Stewart

24'

J. Ruffles← C. Brannagan

61'

A. Akinfenwa← C. Mackail-Smith

63'

71'

76'

79'

80'

80'

83'

P. Cowan-Hall← R Williams

85'

Dominic Gape

Wycombe

Oxford

41

15

3

5

2

17

▼

Henry

8

▼

26

12

20

16

1

2

3

5

▼

17

26

10

4

9

▼

Mackail-S

19

Onyedinma

24

▼

Williams

Manager: G. Ainsworth

8'▲M. Harriman←▼A. Stewart

61'▲A. Akinfenwa←▼C. Mackail-Smith

83'▲P. Cowan-Hall←▼R Williams

Wycombe substitutes

16Harriman20Akinfenwa12Cowan-Hall7Saunders11Kashket18Thompson30Ma-Kalambay

Manager: K. Robinson

24'▲J. Ruffles←▼C. Brannagan

63'▲M. Browne←▼J. Henry

Oxford United substitutes

14Ruffles10Browne4Dickie9Smith13Shearer22Raglan23Long

League One: Wycombe 0–0 Oxford United

Wycombe and Oxford United drew 0-0 in League One on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Adams Park in Wycombe.

Wycombe vs Oxford United — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Wycombe 0–0 Oxford United