Wycombe 0–2 Lincoln: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lincoln

L. Sørensen 71'

D. Duffy 7'

4/22/2023

League One · Round 44Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Wycombe44%

×Draw25%

Lincoln31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.25

Wycombe

1.53

Lincoln

1.25

Wycombe creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.94

creates per match

1.38

1.11

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Lincoln

1.38

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Lincoln

1.13

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

69%

Wycombe or Lincoln

75%

Draw or Lincoln

56%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

22%

Lincoln wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

78%

Wycombe 2+ goals

45%

Wycombe 3+ goals

20%

Lincoln 1+ goals

71%

Lincoln 2+ goals

36%

Lincoln 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

58%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wycombe scores more

44%

level

25%

Lincoln scores more

31%

Wycombe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Rushworth

Lincoln · G

8.2

Match Events

7'

D. Duffy↳ R. Poole

24'

Sean Roughan

38'

Luke Plange

43'

J. Willis← J. Grimmer

56'

C. Campbell← N. Freeman

71'

L. Sørensen

72'

B. Hanlan← D. Wheeler

77'

81'

82'

90+2'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeLincoln

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots14

7Corners3

9Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots14

6On Target4

8Off Target7

1Blocked3

13Inside Box8

2Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

426Total Passes252

316Accurate Passes134

74%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1