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Wycombe vs Bury — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
Canc
15:00
Bury
Bury
3/7/2020League OneLeague One · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wycombe54%
×Draw26%
Bury20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.56
Bury
0.84

Wycombe creates 86% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 5 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.53
Bury
0.60

allows per match

Wycombe
1.08
Bury
1.60

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Bury+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Bury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
80%
Wycombe or Bury
74%
Draw or Bury
46%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
29%
Bury wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
79%
Wycombe 2+ goals
46%
Wycombe 3+ goals
21%
Bury 1+ goals
57%
Bury 2+ goals
21%
Bury 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
73%
Bury (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Bury away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Bury defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bury attack 0.60 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wycombe scores more
54%
level
26%
Bury scores more
20%

Wycombe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wycombe face Bury (League One)

League One returns with Wycombe hosting Bury. Match starts March 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.