Wycombe 1–0 Bolton: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bolton

L. Wing 45+8'

2/18/2023

League One · Round 33Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Wycombe46%

×Draw24%

Bolton30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.31

Wycombe

1.67

Bolton

1.31

Wycombe creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.94

creates per match

1.51

1.11

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Bolton

1.51

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Bolton

1.41

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

70%

Wycombe or Bolton

76%

Draw or Bolton

54%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

24%

Bolton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

81%

Wycombe 2+ goals

50%

Wycombe 3+ goals

23%

Bolton 1+ goals

73%

Bolton 2+ goals

38%

Bolton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

60%

Bolton (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bolton attack 1.51 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wycombe scores more

46%

level

24%

Bolton scores more

30%

Wycombe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Wing

Wycombe · M

8.3

Match Events

1'

Jordan Obita

33'

J. Willis← J. Grimmer

45+8'

L. Wing↳ G. McCleary

46'

D. John← G. Jones

53'

Shola Shoretire

57'

K. Lee← S. Shoretire

65'

J. Sheehan← K. Dempsey

66'

C. Jerome← D. Charles

74'

Aaron Morley

81'

N. Freeman← G. McCleary

83'

R. Williams← C. Bradley

83'

E. Kachunga← A. Morley

88'

T. De Barr← B. Hanlan

89'

Josh Scowen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeBolton

Overview

40%Possession60%

19Total Shots16

7Corners7

9Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots16

6On Target3

7Off Target4

6Blocked9

7Inside Box10

12Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

225Total Passes337

135Accurate Passes218

60%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1