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Wycombe vs Bolton — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
S. Vokes 72'
11/20/2021League OneLeague One · Round 18Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Wycombe46%
×Draw24%
Bolton30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.67
Bolton
1.31

Wycombe creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.94
Bolton
1.51

allows per match

Wycombe
1.11
Bolton
1.41

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par
Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
70%
Wycombe or Bolton
76%
Draw or Bolton
54%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
24%
Bolton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
81%
Wycombe 2+ goals
50%
Wycombe 3+ goals
23%
Bolton 1+ goals
73%
Bolton 2+ goals
38%
Bolton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
60%
Bolton (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bolton attack 1.51 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wycombe scores more
46%
level
24%
Bolton scores more
30%

Wycombe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
J. DixonBoltonBolton · G
8.3

Match Events

13'
Ryan Tafazolli
57'
G. Johnston← M. Williams
62'
G. McCleary← S. Kaikai
72'
S. Vokes↳ J. McCarthy
81'
X. Amaechi← A. Baptiste
90+4'
David Stockdale

Possession

43%Wycombe

Shots

19Wycombe

Pass accuracy

49%Wycombe

Statistics

WycombeBolton
Overview
43%Possession57%
19Total Shots18
8Corners11
12Fouls9
Shots
19Total Shots18
7On Target4
7Off Target5
5Blocked9
14Inside Box10
5Outside Box8
Passing
43%Possession57%
228Total Passes316
134Accurate Passes194
59%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

League One: Wycombe 1–0 Bolton

Wycombe beat Bolton 1-0 in League One on November 20, 2021.

Goals: S. Vokes (72').

Bolton controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 19.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.