Wycombe 0–1 Barnsley: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barnsley

S. Tedić 85'

3/18/2023

League One · Round 37Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Wycombe48%

×Draw23%

Barnsley30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.39

Wycombe

1.82

Barnsley

1.39

Wycombe creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.97

creates per match

1.53

1.25

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Wycombe

1.97

Barnsley

1.53

allows per match

Wycombe

1.25

Barnsley

1.67

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Wycombe+0.17scores more

Barnsley+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

70%

Wycombe or Barnsley

77%

Draw or Barnsley

52%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

26%

Barnsley wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

84%

Wycombe 2+ goals

54%

Wycombe 3+ goals

27%

Barnsley 1+ goals

75%

Barnsley 2+ goals

40%

Barnsley 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

62%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.97 + Barnsley defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.82

Barnsley attack 1.53 + Wycombe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wycombe scores more

48%

level

23%

Barnsley scores more

30%

Wycombe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Jacobson

Wycombe · D

7.9

Match Events

19'

42'

45'

45+5'

57'

57'

68'

77'

Z. Larkeche← N. Cadden

78'

J. Benson← A. Phillips

80'

D. Wheeler← T. De Barr

80'

N. Freeman← C. Campbell

85'

S. Tedić↳ L. Thomas

88'

R. Tafazolli← J. Grimmer

90'

Mads Juel Andersen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeBarnsley

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots7

12Corners1

11Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots7

1On Target2

5Off Target3

4Blocked2

9Inside Box5

1Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

343Total Passes323

203Accurate Passes190

59%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0