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Wycombe vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
12/8/2018League OneLeague One · Round 21Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Wycombe47%
×Draw23%
Barnsley30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.80
Barnsley
1.38

Wycombe creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.94
Barnsley
1.53

allows per match

Wycombe
1.22
Barnsley
1.67

finishing

Wycombe+0.31scores more
Barnsley+0.30scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
70%
Wycombe or Barnsley
77%
Draw or Barnsley
53%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
26%
Barnsley wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
83%
Wycombe 2+ goals
54%
Wycombe 3+ goals
27%
Barnsley 1+ goals
75%
Barnsley 2+ goals
40%
Barnsley 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
62%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.22 · 8 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Barnsley defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Barnsley attack 1.53 + Wycombe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wycombe scores more
47%
level
23%
Barnsley scores more
30%

Wycombe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wycombe 1–0 Barnsley

Wycombe beat Barnsley 1-0 in League One on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Adams Park in Wycombe.