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Würzburger FV vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
Preview
13:00
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
3/6/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 22
Big match
42%
Ingolstadt II
model favours
35%23%42%
1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Würzburger FV35%
×Draw23%
Ingolstadt II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger FV
1.55
Ingolstadt II
1.71

Ingolstadt II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Würzburger FV
1.53
Ingolstadt II
1.80

allows per match

Würzburger FV
1.63
Ingolstadt II
1.57

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw
58%
Würzburger FV or Ingolstadt II
77%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
65%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+
17%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals
79%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
46%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
20%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
82%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
51%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
46%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.53 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + Würzburger FV defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Würzburger FV scores more
35%
level
23%
Ingolstadt II scores more
42%

Ingolstadt II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FV
DLWW
II
LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Würzburger FV face Ingolstadt II (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Würzburger FV hosting Ingolstadt II. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.