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Würzburger FV vs DJK Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
Preview
13:00
DJK Bamberg
DJK Bamberg
4/3/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 26
51%
Würzburger FV
model favours
51%22%27%

DJK Bamberg win just 17% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Würzburger FV51%
×Draw22%
DJK Bamberg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger FV
1.94
DJK Bamberg
1.34

Würzburger FV creates 45% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Würzburger FV
1.53
DJK Bamberg
1.06

allows per match

Würzburger FV
1.63
DJK Bamberg
2.35

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par
DJK Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

DJK Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw
73%
Würzburger FV or DJK Bamberg
78%
Draw or DJK Bamberg
49%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+
29%
DJK Bamberg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals
86%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
58%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
30%
DJK Bamberg 1+ goals
74%
DJK Bamberg 2+ goals
39%
DJK Bamberg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
66%
DJK Bamberg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

DJK Bamberg away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.53 + DJK Bamberg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

DJK Bamberg attack 1.06 + Würzburger FV defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Würzburger FV scores more
51%
level
22%
DJK Bamberg scores more
27%

Würzburger FV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FV
DLWW
Bamberg
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Würzburger FV face DJK Bamberg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Würzburger FV hosting DJK Bamberg. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.