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Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — League One 2018

Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
4/8/2018League OneLeague One · Round 5Zhongnan University Stadium (Wuhan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Wuhan Zall54%
×Draw24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Zall
1.68
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0.95

Wuhan Zall creates 77% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wuhan Zall
2.27
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.23

allows per match

Wuhan Zall
0.67
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.08

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw
79%
Wuhan Zall or Shenzhen Ruby FC
76%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
46%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
30%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
81%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
50%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
61%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
25%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
72%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 2.27 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.68

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.23 + Wuhan Zall defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more
54%
level
24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
21%

Wuhan Zall at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Wuhan Zall beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 in League One on April 8, 2018.

The match was played at Zhongnan University Stadium (Wuhan).