Wuhan Zall 2–1 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Wuhan Zall

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Shandong Luneng

8/15/2019

Super League · Round 22Dongxihu Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Wuhan Zall32%

×Draw25%

Shandong Luneng43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan ZallExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.58

Wuhan Zall

1.34

Shandong Luneng

1.58

Shandong Luneng creates 18% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 122 away

1.24

creates per match

1.77

1.39

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Wuhan Zall

1.24

Shandong Luneng

1.77

allows per match

Wuhan Zall

1.39

Shandong Luneng

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw

57%

Wuhan Zall or Shandong Luneng

75%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

68%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

14%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

74%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

39%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

15%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

79%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

47%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

43%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 1.24 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more

32%

level

25%

Shandong Luneng scores more

43%

Shandong Luneng at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff