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WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC — Bundesliga 2018

WSG Wattens
WSG Wattens
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
3/16/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 1Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

WSG Wattens33%
×Draw24%
Wolfsberger AC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSG Wattens
1.38
Wolfsberger AC
1.58

Wolfsberger AC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 130 away

creates per match

WSG Wattens
1.30
Wolfsberger AC
1.59

allows per match

WSG Wattens
1.58
Wolfsberger AC
1.45

finishing

WSG Wattens+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSG Wattens ↓

Wolfsberger AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

WSG Wattens or draw
58%
WSG Wattens or Wolfsberger AC
76%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC
67%

Winning margin

WSG Wattens wins by 2+
15%
Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

WSG Wattens 1+ goals
75%
WSG Wattens 2+ goals
40%
WSG Wattens 3+ goals
16%
Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
79%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
47%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)
44%
Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSG Wattens at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSG Wattens attack 1.30 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.59 + WSG Wattens defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

WSG Wattens scores more
33%
level
24%
Wolfsberger AC scores more
42%

Wolfsberger AC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: WSG Wattens 1–1 Wolfsberger AC

WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Innsbruck.