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Wrexham vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Wrexham
Wrexham
Preview
15:00
Cardiff
Cardiff
3/6/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Racecourse Ground
55%
Wrexham
model favours
55%22%23%

Wrexham and Cardiff have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Wrexham55%
×Draw22%
Cardiff23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.94
Cardiff
1.16

Wrexham creates 67% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Cardiff
0.70

allows per match

Wrexham
1.61
Cardiff
2.10

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
77%
Wrexham or Cardiff
78%
Draw or Cardiff
45%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
32%
Cardiff wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
86%
Wrexham 2+ goals
58%
Wrexham 3+ goals
30%
Cardiff 1+ goals
69%
Cardiff 2+ goals
32%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
71%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Cardiff defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.94

Cardiff attack 0.70 + Wrexham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wrexham scores more
55%
level
22%
Cardiff scores more
23%

Wrexham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Wrexham
DDLWW
Cardiff
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wrexham host Cardiff

March 6, 2027: Wrexham take on Cardiff in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wrexham host Cardiff at Racecourse Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.