Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wrexham vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Wrexham
Wrexham
Preview
18:45
Burnley
Burnley
9/8/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Racecourse Ground
45%
Burnley
model favours
29%26%45%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Wrexham29%
×Draw26%
Burnley45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.08
Burnley
1.43

Burnley creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 8 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Burnley
1.25

allows per match

Wrexham
1.61
Burnley
0.38

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
55%
Wrexham or Burnley
74%
Draw or Burnley
71%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
11%
Burnley wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
66%
Wrexham 2+ goals
29%
Wrexham 3+ goals
10%
Burnley 1+ goals
76%
Burnley 2+ goals
42%
Burnley 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
39%
Burnley (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Burnley defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

Burnley attack 1.25 + Wrexham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wrexham scores more
29%
level
26%
Burnley scores more
45%

Burnley at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games
  • Wrexham and Burnley have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Wrexham
DDLWW
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wrexham host Burnley

September 8, 2026: Wrexham take on Burnley in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wrexham host Burnley at Racecourse Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.