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Wormatia Worms vs Gonsenheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
3/6/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12EWR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wormatia Worms49%
×Draw22%
Gonsenheim29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wormatia Worms
1.99
Gonsenheim
1.48

Wormatia Worms creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 78 away

creates per match

Wormatia Worms
2.42
Gonsenheim
1.83

allows per match

Wormatia Worms
1.12
Gonsenheim
1.56

finishing

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par
Gonsenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wormatia Worms ↓

Gonsenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Wormatia Worms or draw
71%
Wormatia Worms or Gonsenheim
78%
Draw or Gonsenheim
51%

Winning margin

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
28%
Gonsenheim wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
86%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
59%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
32%
Gonsenheim 1+ goals
77%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
43%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
63%
Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wormatia Worms at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

Gonsenheim away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wormatia Worms attack 2.42 + Gonsenheim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.99

Gonsenheim attack 1.83 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wormatia Worms scores more
49%
level
22%
Gonsenheim scores more
29%

Wormatia Worms at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wormatia Worms vs Gonsenheim

Wormatia Worms beat Gonsenheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 6, 2024.

The match was played at EWR-Arena in Worms.