Wolves 4–3 Leicester: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Leicester

Diogo Jota 90+3', 64', 4'

R. Bennett 12'

W. Morgan 87'

C. Coady 51' (OG)

D. Gray 47'

1/19/2019

Premier League · Round 23Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Wolves39%

×Draw23%

Leicester38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.67

Wolves

1.71

Leicester

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 6 away

1.11

creates per match

1.92

1.43

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Wolves

1.11

Leicester

1.92

allows per match

Wolves

1.43

Leicester

2.30

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.08on par

Leicester-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

62%

Wolves or Leicester

77%

Draw or Leicester

61%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

20%

Leicester wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

82%

Wolves 2+ goals

51%

Wolves 3+ goals

24%

Leicester 1+ goals

81%

Leicester 2+ goals

50%

Leicester 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

51%

Leicester (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.43 · 31 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.30 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.11 + Leicester defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.71

Leicester attack 1.92 + Wolves defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wolves scores more

39%

level

23%

Leicester scores more

38%

Wolves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Diogo Jota

Wolves · F

8.5

Match Events

2'

Nampalys Mendy

4'

Diogo Jota↳ João Moutinho

12'

R. Bennett↳ João Moutinho

44'

Ryan Bennett

45'

Diogo Jota

45'

Ricardo Pereira

47'

D. Gray↳ J. Vardy

48'

J. Evans← H. Maguire

51'

C. CoadyOwn goal

58'

Wilfred Ndidi

64'

Diogo Jota↳ Rúben Neves

73'

M. Doherty← Rúben Vinagre

73'

J. Maddison← H. Barnes

81'

M. Gibbs-White← João Moutinho

83'

K. Iheanacho← D. Simpson

86'

Jonny Castro

87'

W. Morgan↳ J. Maddison

90+3'

Diogo Jota↳ R. Jiménez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesLeicester

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots16

5Corners9

11Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots16

7On Target6

3Off Target5

2Blocked5

9Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

381Total Passes447

269Accurate Passes327

71%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0