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Wolves vs Derby — Championship 2025

Wolves
Wolves
Preview
19:45
Derby
Derby
11/24/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Molineux Stadium
37%
Wolves
model favours
37%27%36%

Wolves score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Wolves37%
×Draw27%
Derby36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolves
1.25
Derby
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

creates per match

Wolves
1.13
Derby
1.46

allows per match

Wolves
1.00
Derby
1.38

finishing

Wolves+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wolves or draw
64%
Wolves or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
63%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+
16%
Derby wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals
71%
Wolves 2+ goals
36%
Wolves 3+ goals
13%
Derby 1+ goals
71%
Derby 2+ goals
35%
Derby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)
51%
Derby (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Derby away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.13 + Derby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Derby attack 1.46 + Wolves defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wolves scores more
37%
level
27%
Derby scores more
36%

Wolves at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 38% of Wolves’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Wolves and Derby have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Wolves
DDLDL
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wolves vs Derby — Match Preview

Wolves face Derby on November 24, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wolves host Derby at Molineux Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.