Wolves 2–1 Brighton: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brighton

M. Gibbs-White 90'

Adama Traoré 76'

L. Dunk 13'

5/9/2021

Premier League · Round 35Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Wolves35%

×Draw25%

Brighton40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.49

Wolves

1.37

Brighton

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

1.11

creates per match

1.55

1.43

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Wolves

1.11

Brighton

1.55

allows per match

Wolves

1.43

Brighton

1.63

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.08on par

Brighton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

60%

Wolves or Brighton

75%

Draw or Brighton

65%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

16%

Brighton wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

75%

Wolves 2+ goals

40%

Wolves 3+ goals

16%

Brighton 1+ goals

77%

Brighton 2+ goals

44%

Brighton 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

46%

Brighton (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.43 · 31 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.11 + Brighton defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

Brighton attack 1.55 + Wolves defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wolves scores more

35%

level

25%

Brighton scores more

40%

Brighton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

Adama Traoré

Wolves · F

7.9

Match Events

13'

L. Dunk↳ P. Groß

53'

Lewis Dunk

58'

A. Mac Allister← A. Jahanbakhsh

58'

J. Moder← L. Trossard

61'

Adama Traoré← Rúben Neves

70'

Willian José← Daniel Podence

76'

Adama Traoré↳ Fábio Silva

77'

L. Dendoncker← Vitinha

78'

A. Zeqiri← D. Welbeck

80'

83'

85'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesBrighton

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots5

10Corners5

12Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots5

6On Target3

3Off Target1

7Blocked1

9Inside Box5

7Outside Box0

Passing

60%Possession40%

569Total Passes373

506Accurate Passes307

89%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards2

0Offsides2