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Wolkite Ketema vs Adama Kenema — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
4/1/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wolkite Ketema29%
×Draw29%
Adama Kenema42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.94
Adama Kenema
1.19

Adama Kenema creates 27% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 102 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Adama Kenema
1.04

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Adama Kenema
1.23

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Adama Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Adama Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
58%
Wolkite Ketema or Adama Kenema
71%
Draw or Adama Kenema
71%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
10%
Adama Kenema wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
61%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
24%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
7%
Adama Kenema 1+ goals
70%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
33%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
41%
Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Adama Kenema away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Adama Kenema defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.94

Adama Kenema attack 1.04 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
29%
level
29%
Adama Kenema scores more
42%

Adama Kenema at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Adama Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wolkite Ketema 1–1 Adama Kenema

Wolkite Ketema and Adama Kenema drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.