Wolfsberger AC II 1–1 Bad Gleichenberg

Wolfsberger AC II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bad Gleichenberg

9/25/2021

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 11Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Wolfsberger AC II45%

×Draw22%

Bad Gleichenberg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsberger AC IIExpected goals in this matchBad Gleichenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.59

Wolfsberger AC II

1.91

Bad Gleichenberg

1.59

Wolfsberger AC II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 75 away

1.77

creates per match

1.75

1.43

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC II

1.77

Bad Gleichenberg

1.75

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC II

1.43

Bad Gleichenberg

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC II ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC II or draw

68%

Wolfsberger AC II or Bad Gleichenberg

78%

Draw or Bad Gleichenberg

55%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+

25%

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals

85%

Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals

57%

Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals

30%

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

80%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

47%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)

58%

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.77 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.91

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wolfsberger AC II scores more

45%

level

22%

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

32%

Wolfsberger AC II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff