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Wisla Krakow vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2018

Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
3/15/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 24Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Wisla Krakow47%
×Draw25%
Miedz Legnica28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Krakow
1.59
Miedz Legnica
1.16

Wisla Krakow creates 37% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 105 away

creates per match

Wisla Krakow
2.00
Miedz Legnica
1.23

allows per match

Wisla Krakow
1.09
Miedz Legnica
1.18

finishing

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par
Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Krakow ↓

Miedz Legnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wisla Krakow or draw
72%
Wisla Krakow or Miedz Legnica
75%
Draw or Miedz Legnica
53%

Winning margin

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
24%
Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
80%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
47%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
21%
Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
69%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
32%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
63%
Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Krakow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.09 · 70 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Krakow attack 2.00 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Miedz Legnica attack 1.23 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wisla Krakow scores more
47%
level
25%
Miedz Legnica scores more
28%

Wisla Krakow at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Wisla Krakow 2–0 Miedz Legnica

Wisla Krakow beat Miedz Legnica 2-0 in I Liga on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Kraków.