Sao Raimundo 2–0 Atlético Roraima: Result & Stats

Sao Raimundo

FT

2 – 0

Atlético Roraima

12/5/2020

Roraimense · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Flamarion Vasconcelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sao Raimundo96%

×Draw3%

Atlético Roraima1%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao RaimundoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Roraima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.63

0.42

Sao Raimundo

4.63

Atlético Roraima

0.42

Sao Raimundo creates 1002% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

3.75

creates per match

0.33

0.50

allows per match

5.50

creates per match

Sao Raimundo

3.75

Atlético Roraima

0.33

allows per match

Sao Raimundo

0.50

Atlético Roraima

5.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Raimundo+0.00on par

Atlético Roraima+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Raimundo ↓

Atlético Roraima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–12%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–015%

4–16%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (15%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Sao Raimundo or draw

99%

Sao Raimundo or Atlético Roraima

97%

Draw or Atlético Roraima

4%

Winning margin

Sao Raimundo wins by 2+

87%

Atlético Roraima wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Sao Raimundo 1+ goals

99%

Sao Raimundo 2+ goals

93%

Sao Raimundo 3+ goals

80%

Atlético Roraima 1+ goals

34%

Atlético Roraima 2+ goals

7%

Atlético Roraima 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Sao Raimundo (draw refunded)

99%

Atlético Roraima (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Raimundo at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Atlético Roraima away — creates 0.33, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Raimundo attack 3.75 + Atlético Roraima defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 4.63

Atlético Roraima attack 0.33 + Sao Raimundo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Sao Raimundo scores more

96%

level

3%

Atlético Roraima scores more

1%

Sao Raimundo at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Sao Raimundo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff