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Barki Tajik vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2012

Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
FT
4 – 0
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
5/19/2012Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 7Stadion Avtomobilist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Barki Tajik44%
×Draw26%
Khosilot Farkhor30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barki Tajik
1.42
Khosilot Farkhor
1.13

Barki Tajik creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Barki Tajik
1.17
Khosilot Farkhor
1.32

allows per match

Barki Tajik
0.93
Khosilot Farkhor
1.68

finishing

Barki Tajik+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barki Tajik ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barki Tajik or draw
70%
Barki Tajik or Khosilot Farkhor
74%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
56%

Winning margin

Barki Tajik wins by 2+
21%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barki Tajik 1+ goals
76%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
41%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
17%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
68%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
31%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
59%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barki Tajik at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barki Tajik attack 1.17 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.32 + Barki Tajik defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barki Tajik scores more
44%
level
26%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
30%

Barki Tajik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barki Tajik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barki Tajik vs Khosilot Farkhor

Barki Tajik beat Khosilot Farkhor 4-0 in Vysshaya Liga on May 19, 2012.

The match was played at Stadion Avtomobilist in Dushanbe.