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Wisła Sandomierz vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
FT
2 – 2
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
11/18/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz35%
×Draw24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Sandomierz
1.43
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.58

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 10% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 104 away

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.28
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.39

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.77
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.57

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par
Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw
59%
Wisła Sandomierz or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
76%
Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
65%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
16%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
76%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
42%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
17%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
79%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
47%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
46%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more
35%
level
24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
41%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Sandomierz 2–2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Wisła Sandomierz and Podlasie Biała Podlaska drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 18, 2020.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz in Sandomierz.