Jubilo Iwata 3–0 Consadole Sapporo: Result & Stats

Jubilo Iwata

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Consadole Sapporo

Y. Morishima 88'

J. Bothroyd 66', 55'

10/18/2015

J2 League · Round 37Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jubilo Iwata50%

×Draw24%

Consadole Sapporo27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jubilo IwataExpected goals in this matchConsadole Sapporo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.20

Jubilo Iwata

1.73

Consadole Sapporo

1.20

Jubilo Iwata creates 44% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

1.65

creates per match

1.20

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata

1.65

Consadole Sapporo

1.20

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata

1.20

Consadole Sapporo

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Consadole Sapporo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw

73%

Jubilo Iwata or Consadole Sapporo

76%

Draw or Consadole Sapporo

50%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+

27%

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals

82%

Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals

52%

Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals

25%

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

70%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

34%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)

65%

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.65 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.20 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more

50%

level

24%

Consadole Sapporo scores more

27%

Jubilo Iwata at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

55'

66'

67'

77'

Y. Morishima← J. Bothroyd

80'

Y. Uchimura← S. Ono

84'

Y. Fujita← S. Morishita

88'

Y. Morishima

90+1'

D. Matsui← Adailton

Jubilo

Consadole

25

Gu

5

Kushibiki

3

▼

Paulao

44

▼

4

19

10

18

31

50

▼

9

21

19

13

35

▼

25

9

7

4

40

8

⚽2

▼

Bothroyd

15

▼

Adailton

77'▲Y. Morishima←▼J. Bothroyd

84'▲Y. Fujita←▼S. Morishita

90+1'▲D. Matsui←▼Adailton

Jubilo Iwata substitutes

20Morishima33Fujita22Matsui1Hatta5Komano6Tanaka11Matsuura

15'▲A. Fukumori←▼Paulao

67'▲T. Arano←▼C. Nazarit

80'▲Y. Uchimura←▼S. Ono

Consadole Sapporo substitutes

24Fukumori27Arano13Uchimura1Kanayama14Uehara20Uesato42Nildo