Istiqlol 4–1 Khosilot Farkhor: Result & Stats

Istiqlol

FT

4 – 1

Khosilot Farkhor

4/8/2012

Vysshaya Liga · Round 1Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Istiqlol68%

×Draw18%

Khosilot Farkhor14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchKhosilot Farkhor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.93

Istiqlol

2.29

Khosilot Farkhor

0.93

Istiqlol creates 146% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

2.97

creates per match

1.43

0.43

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Istiqlol

2.97

Khosilot Farkhor

1.43

allows per match

Istiqlol

0.43

Khosilot Farkhor

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

86%

Istiqlol or Khosilot Farkhor

82%

Draw or Khosilot Farkhor

32%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

44%

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

90%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

66%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

40%

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals

61%

Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals

24%

Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

83%

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 2.97, concedes 0.43 · 35 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 2.97 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.29

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.43 + Istiqlol defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Istiqlol scores more

68%

level

18%

Khosilot Farkhor scores more

14%

Istiqlol at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff