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Willem II vs KV Mechelen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Willem II
Willem II
Preview
12:00
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
43%
KV Mechelen
model favours
33%24%43%

KV Mechelen score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Willem II33%
×Draw24%
KV Mechelen43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.40
KV Mechelen
1.65

KV Mechelen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Willem II
2.29
KV Mechelen
2.00

allows per match

Willem II
1.29
KV Mechelen
0.50

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
57%
Willem II or KV Mechelen
76%
Draw or KV Mechelen
67%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
15%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
75%
Willem II 2+ goals
41%
Willem II 3+ goals
17%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
81%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
49%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
43%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 2.29 + KV Mechelen defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

KV Mechelen attack 2.00 + Willem II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Willem II scores more
33%
level
24%
KV Mechelen scores more
43%

KV Mechelen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • KV Mechelen have won 3 in a row
  • Willem II have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 78% of Willem II’s matches
  • Willem II and KV Mechelen have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
DLWLW
Mechelen
WWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Willem II vs KV Mechelen — Match Preview

Willem II face KV Mechelen on July 25, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.