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Willem II U21 vs Groningen U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Willem II U21
Willem II U21
FT
1 – 4
Groningen U21
Groningen U21
10/1/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 4Sportpark Prinsenhoeve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Willem II U2132%
×Draw22%
Groningen U2146%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II U21
1.59
Groningen U21
1.95

Groningen U21 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 70 away

creates per match

Willem II U21
1.56
Groningen U21
2.14

allows per match

Willem II U21
1.76
Groningen U21
1.63

finishing

Willem II U21+0.00on par
Groningen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II U21 ↓

Groningen U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Willem II U21 or draw
54%
Willem II U21 or Groningen U21
78%
Draw or Groningen U21
68%

Winning margin

Willem II U21 wins by 2+
15%
Groningen U21 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Willem II U21 1+ goals
80%
Willem II U21 2+ goals
47%
Willem II U21 3+ goals
21%
Groningen U21 1+ goals
86%
Groningen U21 2+ goals
58%
Groningen U21 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Willem II U21 (draw refunded)
41%
Groningen U21 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II U21 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

Groningen U21 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II U21 attack 1.56 + Groningen U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Groningen U21 attack 2.14 + Willem II U21 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Willem II U21 scores more
32%
level
22%
Groningen U21 scores more
46%

Groningen U21 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Groningen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Willem II U21 1–4 Groningen U21

Groningen U21 beat Willem II U21 4-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Prinsenhoeve in Tilburg.