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Wiliete vs Santa Rita — Girabola 2019

Wiliete
Wiliete
FT
1 – 1
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
12/27/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 1Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wiliete55%
×Draw26%
Santa Rita18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiliete
1.48
Santa Rita
0.72

Wiliete creates 106% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 68 away

creates per match

Wiliete
1.64
Santa Rita
0.50

allows per match

Wiliete
0.94
Santa Rita
1.32

finishing

Wiliete+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiliete ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wiliete or draw
82%
Wiliete or Santa Rita
74%
Draw or Santa Rita
45%

Winning margin

Wiliete wins by 2+
29%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wiliete 1+ goals
77%
Wiliete 2+ goals
43%
Wiliete 3+ goals
19%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
51%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
16%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wiliete (draw refunded)
75%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiliete at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiliete attack 1.64 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Wiliete defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wiliete scores more
55%
level
26%
Santa Rita scores more
18%

Wiliete at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Wiliete 1–1 Santa Rita

Wiliete and Santa Rita drew 1-1 in Girabola on December 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.