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Wiliete vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

Wiliete
Wiliete
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
3/10/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 14Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Wiliete31%
×Draw27%
Petro de Luanda41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiliete
1.13
Petro de Luanda
1.34

Petro de Luanda creates 19% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 109 away

creates per match

Wiliete
1.64
Petro de Luanda
1.75

allows per match

Wiliete
0.94
Petro de Luanda
0.61

finishing

Wiliete+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiliete ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wiliete or draw
59%
Wiliete or Petro de Luanda
73%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
69%

Winning margin

Wiliete wins by 2+
13%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wiliete 1+ goals
68%
Wiliete 2+ goals
31%
Wiliete 3+ goals
11%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
74%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
39%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wiliete (draw refunded)
43%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiliete at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiliete attack 1.64 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.13

Petro de Luanda attack 1.75 + Wiliete defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wiliete scores more
31%
level
27%
Petro de Luanda scores more
41%

Petro de Luanda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Wiliete 0–2 Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat Wiliete 2-0 in Girabola on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.